AI/ML & Data
Sales Forecasting
Demand forecasts with the error bar printed on the label: MAPE 25.56%.
A time-series model forecasting sales for planning — shipped with its real error rate (MAPE 25.56%) so decisions price the uncertainty in.
01
The problem
Ordering and staffing run on gut feel; both overstock and stockouts are just forecasting errors wearing different costs.
02
Our approach
Time-series modeling with seasonality and trend decomposition, backtested across periods rather than cherry-picked windows.
03
The outcome
Forecasts accurate enough to beat gut feel, with error honestly quantified at MAPE 25.56%.
- MAPE
- 25.56%
Highlights
- Seasonality-aware modeling
- Multi-period backtesting
- Uncertainty stated up front
